Bitcoin Halving: One Year On, What the Data Shows
One year after the 2024 Bitcoin halving, the post-cycle data is in – and a lot of the conventional wisdom got reset.
Hashrate has tripled since the halving, not contracted as some predicted. Miner economics have stabilized at a healthier-than-expected level, helped by ASIC efficiency gains and a rising spot price. Public miners are reporting all-in production costs in the $42-50K range against a price near $76K.
What the cycle did not do
It did not produce a cleanly mapped 2017/2021-style retail mania. Inflows came largely through ETFs and corporate treasuries rather than retail wallet creation. Coinbase retail volumes are below previous cycle peaks despite a higher price.
The EsportForge read: the cycle is structurally different. Treat the historical halving playbook as priors, not predictions.